División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 19:00 · FC Universitario de Vinto vs CDT Real Oruro
Likeliest: FC Universitario de Vinto win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Universitario de Vinto57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
CDT Real Oruro22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Universitario de Vinto
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 17 · at Blooming (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Independiente Petrolero (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Academia del Balompié Boliviano (A)0-2
- Aug 25 · v Nacional Potosí (H)2-0
- Aug 21 · at The Strongest (A)3-4
CDT Real Oruro
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 15 · v Real Potosí (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at The Strongest (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Blooming (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Bolívar (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | FC Universitario de Vinto | CDT Real Oruro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.