División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 21:15 · FC Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo-Bulo
Likeliest: FC Universitario de Vinto win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Universitario de Vinto59%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
San Antonio Bulo-Bulo19%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Universitario de Vinto
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v CDT Real Oruro (H)1-3
- Sep 17 · at Blooming (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Independiente Petrolero (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Academia del Balompié Boliviano (A)0-2
- Aug 25 · v Nacional Potosí (H)2-0
San Antonio Bulo-Bulo
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v CD Real Tomayapo (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Club Aurora (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)0-2
- Aug 26 · v The Strongest (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Universitario de Vinto | San Antonio Bulo-Bulo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.