Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 7 · 11:15 · FC Utrecht vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 37%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht56%37%+18
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−5
OursMarket
FC Twente22%35%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 52% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 65% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 63% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 51% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Nov 30 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Nov 27 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Telstar (A)1-1
- Nov 9 · v Ajax (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · v Porto (H)1-1
FC Twente
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Nov 30 · v AZ (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
- Nov 7 · v Telstar (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Groningen (A)1-1
- Oct 30 · at ROHDA Raalte (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.