KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Tue, Jan 13 · 20:00 · FC Utrecht vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 39%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht39%37%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
FC Twente36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 51% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Dec 21 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Dec 17 · at TOP Oss (A)2-0
- Dec 14 · at NAC Breda (A)1-1
- Dec 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
FC Twente
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 10 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
- Dec 18 · at Spakenburg (A)6-3
- Dec 14 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Dec 7 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.