Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 8 · 11:15 · FC Utrecht vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 30%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht39%30%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Feyenoord35%44%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 70% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 41% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 1 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-1
- Jan 29 · at Celtic (A)2-4
- Jan 25 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-1
- Jan 22 · v Genk (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
Feyenoord
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 1 · at PSV (A)0-3
- Jan 29 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-2
- Jan 22 · v Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.