Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 69%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht69%63%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard13%17%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 68% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 62% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 83% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 37% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 79% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
LossWinLossWinWin
- May 10 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- May 2 · v NAC Breda (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Excelsior (A)0-5
- Apr 11 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at PSV (A)3-4
Fortuna Sittard
LossDrawLossLossWin
- May 10 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-2
- May 3 · v Feyenoord (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v NAC Breda (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at AZ (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.