Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 22 · 13:30 · FC Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 59%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−3
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 75% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Mar 15 · at FC Twente (A)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v AZ (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
Go Ahead Eagles
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 15 · v NAC Breda (H)6-0
- Mar 8 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Mar 1 · at Excelsior (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-0
- Feb 15 · at Feyenoord (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.