Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:45 · FC Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 46%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht56%46%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−3
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles21%28%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 62% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 54% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 62% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-6
- Aug 22 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-3
- Aug 15 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-4
- Aug 9 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Ajax (A)1-1
Go Ahead Eagles
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)2-5
- Aug 23 · v ADO Den Haag (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)4-1
- May 17 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.