Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, May 2 · 14:30 · FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 69%
A 69% home win. The market says 53%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht69%53%+16
OursMarket
Draw18%24%−6
OursMarket
NAC Breda12%23%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 58% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 77% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 47% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 70% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 26 · at Excelsior (A)0-5
- Apr 11 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Mar 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at FC Twente (A)2-0
NAC Breda
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · v Ajax (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.