Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 22 · 13:30 · FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 45%
A 32% away win. The market says 19%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht45%58%−13
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle32%19%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 81% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 75% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Feb 14 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
- Feb 1 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-1
- Jan 29 · at Celtic (A)2-4
PEC Zwolle
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 15 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Jan 24 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-2
- Jan 17 · v AZ (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.