Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 · FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 61%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht61%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Twente (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Feyenoord (A)0-5
- Sep 13 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
PEC Zwolle
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-1
- Oct 11 · v SC Cambuur (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Feyenoord (H)0-7
- Sep 4 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.