Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 21 · 11:15 · FC Utrecht vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 47%
A 31% home win. The market says 22%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht31%22%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
PSV47%54%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 29% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Dec 17 · at TOP Oss (A)2-0
- Dec 14 · at NAC Breda (A)1-1
- Dec 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
PSV
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 16 · v GVVV (H)3-0
- Dec 13 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-3
- Dec 9 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-3
- Dec 6 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.