Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Thu, May 21 · 19:00 · FC Utrecht vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht60%49%+11
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen18%27%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 73% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 51% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 65% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
WinLossWinWinWin
- May 17 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- May 2 · v NAC Breda (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Excelsior (A)0-5
- Apr 11 · v Telstar (H)4-1
SC Heerenveen
LossWinWinLossDraw
- May 17 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- May 10 · at NAC Breda (A)0-2
- May 3 · at FC Volendam (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at AZ (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.