Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Jan 25 · 15:45 · FC Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 45%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht45%48%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam31%26%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 74% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 64% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 22 · v Genk (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Jan 13 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Dec 21 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Dec 17 · at TOP Oss (A)2-0
Sparta Rotterdam
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jan 18 · at Feyenoord (A)4-3
- Jan 15 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-0
- Dec 21 · at FC Volendam (A)1-0
- Dec 18 · at Willem II (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.