Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 11 · 14:30 · FC Utrecht vs Telstar
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 52%
A 24% away win. The market says 18%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Utrecht52%59%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Telstar24%18%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 77% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Utrecht
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 4 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Mar 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at FC Twente (A)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v AZ (H)2-0
Telstar
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 4 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · v PSV (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-3
- Mar 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)4-1
- Mar 4 · at AZ (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Utrecht | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.