Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 · FC Vaduz vs Basel
Likeliest: Basel win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 32% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Vaduz34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Basel41%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Vaduz
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v FC Thun (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at FC Zürich (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at FC Luzern (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)5-2
Basel
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Luzern (A)4-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Lugano (H)1-3
- Sep 3 · v FC Sion (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Young Boys (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Vaduz | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.