Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · FC Vaduz vs FC Thun
Likeliest: FC Vaduz win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Vaduz39%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
FC Thun38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Vaduz
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at FC Zürich (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at FC Luzern (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)5-2
- Aug 23 · at Young Boys (A)2-4
FC Thun
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 16 · v Servette FC (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Sion (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | FC Vaduz | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.