Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · FC Vaduz vs Servette FC
Likeliest: FC Vaduz win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Vaduz52%53%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+2
OursMarket
Servette FC24%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Vaduz
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Basel (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Thun (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at FC Zürich (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at FC Luzern (A)1-2
Servette FC
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 16 · at FC Rotkreuz (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · v FC Sion (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Young Boys (A)2-3
- Sep 16 · at FC Thun (A)4-2
- Sep 13 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Vaduz | Servette FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 3-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.