3. Liga (Germany) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:30 · FC Viktoria Köln vs Preußen Münster
Likeliest: FC Viktoria Köln win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Viktoria Köln47%44%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Preußen Münster29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 59% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Viktoria Köln
LossWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-5
Preußen Münster
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 21 · v Karlsruher SC (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)3-1
- May 17 · at Elversberg (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Viktoria Köln | Preußen Münster |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.