3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · FC Viktoria Köln vs SC Verl
Likeliest: FC Viktoria Köln win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Viktoria Köln62%59%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−2
OursMarket
SC Verl20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Viktoria Köln
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at MSV Duisburg (A)1-1
- Oct 14 · v SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Alemannia Aachen (A)5-2
- Sep 19 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · at SV Meppen (A)3-1
SC Verl
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (A)1-2
- Oct 14 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v FC Würzburger Kickers (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Viktoria Köln | SC Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.