Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:45 · FC Volendam vs FC Den Bosch
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Den Bosch21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 4 · at FC Emmen (A)3-5
- Aug 28 · v FC Dordrecht (H)6-1
- Aug 21 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · v TOP Oss (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)2-3
FC Den Bosch
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 7 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-3
- Aug 28 · v Vitesse (H)1-4
- Aug 21 · v FC Eindhoven (H)5-2
- Aug 14 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-3
- Aug 8 · v Almere City FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | FC Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.