Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:00 · FC Volendam vs FC Dordrecht
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 51%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam64%51%+13
OursMarket
Draw19%25%−6
OursMarket
FC Dordrecht17%24%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 76% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 49% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 75% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 68% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 21 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · v TOP Oss (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Telstar (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Excelsior (A)1-1
FC Dordrecht
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 21 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-2
- Aug 7 · v Jong Ajax (H)2-1
- Apr 24 · v Willem II (H)1-2
- Apr 17 · at Almere City (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | FC Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.