Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · FC Volendam vs Jong FC Utrecht Youth
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam63%60%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−1
OursMarket
Jong FC Utrecht Youth18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Vitesse (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v VVV-Venlo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-4
Jong FC Utrecht Youth
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · at De Graafschap (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v VVV-Venlo (H)1-3
- Sep 14 · v Jong Ajax (H)6-1
- Sep 11 · at NAC Breda (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | Jong FC Utrecht Youth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.