Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 7 · 13:30 · FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 22%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam56%22%+34
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen22%55%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 45% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 78% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 29% | +43 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Nov 30 · at PSV (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at Feyenoord (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Quick Boys (A)2-1
NEC Nijmegen
WinLossWinWinWin
- Nov 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · at Feyenoord (A)4-2
- Nov 9 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-1
- Oct 30 · at Rijnsburgse Boys (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.