Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 3 · 10:15 · FC Volendam vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 51%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam51%28%+23
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen27%48%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 52% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 72% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 36% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
- Apr 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Feyenoord (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-2
SC Heerenveen
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at AZ (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
- Mar 22 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Mar 14 · v Telstar (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.