Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 21 · 15:45 · FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 35%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam51%35%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−4
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam27%39%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 61% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 65% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 47% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Dec 13 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Dec 7 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-3
- Nov 30 · at PSV (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Dec 18 · at Willem II (A)5-1
- Dec 14 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
- Dec 7 · v NAC Breda (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.