Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · FC Volendam vs Telstar
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 35%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam43%35%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Telstar33%39%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 61% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 65% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 47% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- May 10 · at Excelsior (A)1-1
- May 3 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-2
- Apr 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
- Apr 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Feyenoord (H)0-0
Telstar
LossLossWinDrawWin
- May 10 · v Heracles Almelo (H)3-0
- May 2 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.