Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:30 · FC Volendam vs TOP Oss
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 53%
A 24% away win. The market says 14%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam53%68%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
TOP Oss24%14%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 86% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 32% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 83% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Aug 10 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Telstar (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Excelsior (A)1-1
- May 3 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-2
- Apr 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
TOP Oss
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 7 · v NAC Breda (H)1-2
- Apr 24 · at MVV Maastricht (A)2-0
- Apr 17 · v FC Den Bosch (H)4-2
- Apr 13 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-1
- Apr 6 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | TOP Oss |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.