Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · FC Volendam vs Vitesse
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Vitesse33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v VVV-Venlo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-4
- Sep 13 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Emmen (A)3-5
Vitesse
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v NAC Breda (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v TOP Oss (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.