Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 26 · 18:00 · FC Volendam vs VVV-Venlo
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Volendam57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
VVV-Venlo24%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Volendam
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-4
- Sep 13 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Emmen (A)3-5
- Aug 28 · v FC Dordrecht (H)6-1
- Aug 21 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-1
VVV-Venlo
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 18 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v TOP Oss (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-4
- Aug 30 · v FC Emmen (H)4-0
- Aug 23 · v De Graafschap (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Volendam | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.