Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:30 · FC Wil 1900 vs FC Rapperswil-Jona
Likeliest: FC Wil 1900 win · 41%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 37% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Wil 190041%44%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Rapperswil-Jona34%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 68% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Wil 1900
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at FC Bulle (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · at SC Kriens (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Stade Nyonnais (H)5-0
- Sep 11 · at FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (A)0-4
- Sep 4 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-1
FC Rapperswil-Jona
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · at Neuchâtel Xamax (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v Yverdon-Sport FC (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Aarau (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC Wil 1900 | FC Rapperswil-Jona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.