Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:15 · FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau
Likeliest: FC Winterthur win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Winterthur40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%0
OursMarket
FC Aarau35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Winterthur
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 11 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-1
- Aug 21 · at FC Rapperswil-Jona (A)2-0
FC Aarau
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v SC Kriens (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Rapperswil-Jona (H)3-2
- Aug 31 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Winterthur | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-1 | 3-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 88% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.