Schweizer Cup (Switzerland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:00 · FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
Likeliest: FC Luzern win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Winterthur14%14%0
OursMarket
Draw23%18%+5
OursMarket
FC Luzern63%68%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 32% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 86% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 17% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Winterthur
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Neuchâtel Xamax (A)0-3
- Sep 18 · v FC Aarau (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)2-2
FC Luzern
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at FC Lugano (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)5-1
- Sep 13 · v Basel (H)2-4
- Sep 5 · at Young Boys (A)3-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Vaduz (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Winterthur | FC Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 0-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.