Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:15 · FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais
Likeliest: FC Winterthur win · 79%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Winterthur79%78%+2
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−3
OursMarket
Stade Nyonnais10%8%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 71% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 92% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 22% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 90% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Winterthur
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v FC Luzern (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Neuchâtel Xamax (A)0-3
- Sep 18 · v FC Aarau (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)4-0
Stade Nyonnais
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Basel (H)0-3
- Oct 9 · v FC Aarau (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)0-5
- Sep 11 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | FC Winterthur | Stade Nyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 0-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.