Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Jul 24 · 18:15 · FC Winterthur vs Yverdon-Sport FC
Likeliest: FC Winterthur win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 43%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Winterthur51%43%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Yverdon-Sport FC25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 66% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 58% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.