3. Liga (Germany) · Tue, Sep 15 · 17:00 · FC Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen
Likeliest: Alemannia Aachen win · 59%
A 59% away win. The market says 46%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Würzburger Kickers24%29%−5
OursMarket
Draw17%25%−8
OursMarket
Alemannia Aachen59%46%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 54% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 75% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 39% | −10 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 3.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Würzburger Kickers
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)2-6
- Sep 6 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at MSV Duisburg (A)0-3
- Aug 24 · v 1. FC Köln (H)1-2
- Aug 14 · v SV Wehen Wiesbaden (H)4-0
Alemannia Aachen
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · v SV Meppen (H)0-3
- Aug 15 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)1-1
- Aug 9 · v SC Verl (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Würzburger Kickers | Alemannia Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-4 | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.