3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:30 · FC Würzburger Kickers vs SV Waldhof Mannheim
Likeliest: SV Waldhof Mannheim win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Würzburger Kickers23%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
SV Waldhof Mannheim52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Würzburger Kickers
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 13 · at TSV Havelse (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v F.C. Hansa Rostock (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at SC Verl (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Alemannia Aachen (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)2-6
SV Waldhof Mannheim
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · v Preußen Münster (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Würzburger Kickers | SV Waldhof Mannheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.