Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · FC Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Likeliest: FK Jablonec win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Zbrojovka Brno35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
FK Jablonec36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Zbrojovka Brno
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Mladá Boleslav (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Králův Dvůr (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v SK Líšeň (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)0-4
- Sep 2 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)1-0
FK Jablonec
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Dukla Praha (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Zlín (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Baník Ostrava (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Slovan Liberec (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Zbrojovka Brno | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.