Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · FC Zlín vs SK Sigma Olomouc
Likeliest: SK Sigma Olomouc win · 52%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Zlín20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
SK Sigma Olomouc52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Zlín
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at FK Pardubice (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v SK Slavia Praha (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at FK Jablonec (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at MFK Havířov (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)1-2
SK Sigma Olomouc
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v FC Slovan Liberec (H)1-0
- Oct 11 · at FK Teplice (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Bohemians Praha 1905 (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | FC Zlín | SK Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-0-6 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.