Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:00 · FC Zlín vs SK Slavia Praha
Likeliest: SK Slavia Praha win · 79%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Zlín6%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
SK Slavia Praha79%75%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 11% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Zlín
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at FK Jablonec (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at MFK Havířov (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FK Teplice (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)2-3
SK Slavia Praha
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FK Varnsdorf (A)5-1
- Sep 13 · at FK Teplice (A)2-0
- Sep 10 · v RC Lens (H)2-3
- Sep 5 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | FC Zlín | SK Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-0-5 | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.