Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · FC Zürich vs FC Thun
Likeliest: FC Thun win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Zürich33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
FC Thun41%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Zürich
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at FC Sion (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v FC Vaduz (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Young Boys (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)3-2
FC Thun
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at FC Vaduz (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Servette FC (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Sion (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Zürich | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.