Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 · FC Zürich vs FC Vaduz
Likeliest: FC Zürich win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Zürich39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
FC Vaduz34%35%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Zürich
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Young Boys (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Basel (H)1-2
- Aug 9 · at FC Lugano (A)0-5
FC Vaduz
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at FC Luzern (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)5-2
- Aug 23 · at Young Boys (A)2-4
- Aug 13 · v Inter Turku (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Zürich | FC Vaduz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.