Superliga (Romania) · Sun, Aug 30 · 18:00 · FCSB vs UTA Arad
Likeliest: FCSB win · 48%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FCSB48%62%−14
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
UTA Arad30%17%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 57% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 54% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 83% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 38% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 79% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FCSB
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)0-1
- Aug 17 · v FC Botoșani (H)3-2
- Aug 10 · at Sepsi OSK (A)0-0
- Aug 3 · v FC Farul Constanța (H)2-2
- Jul 30 · at FK Auda (A)1-4
UTA Arad
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 22 · v FC Corvinul Hunedoara (H)0-0
- Aug 17 · at FC Universitatea Cluj (A)1-2
- Aug 7 · v FC Rapid București (H)0-0
- Aug 1 · at FC Voluntari (A)0-1
- Jul 24 · v SC Oțelul Galați (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FCSB | UTA Arad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.