Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:00 · Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fenerbahçe73%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Alanyaspor10%11%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fenerbahçe
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Aston Villa (A)0-6
- Oct 10 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Eyüpspor (H)8-0
- Sep 14 · at Gaziantep FK (A)0-0
- Sep 10 · v Roma (H)1-1
Alanyaspor
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Çorum FK (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Göztepe (H)2-2
- Sep 7 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Eyüpspor (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Fenerbahçe | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.