Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 · Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 82%
A tight one: we make it 82% for the home win. The market says 80%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fenerbahçe82%80%+3
OursMarket
Draw11%13%−3
OursMarket
Eyüpspor7%7%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 93% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 18% | 20% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 87% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 92% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fenerbahçe
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 14 · at Gaziantep FK (A)0-0
- Sep 10 · v Roma (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Samsunspor (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
Eyüpspor
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Çorum FK (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Alanyaspor (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Gaziantep FK (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fenerbahçe | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.