Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Aug 18 · 19:00 · Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 47%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fenerbahçe63%47%+17
OursMarket
Draw18%26%−8
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais18%27%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 55% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 73% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 53% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 74% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 63% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fenerbahçe
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)1-2
- Aug 11 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-0
- Aug 5 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)2-0
- Jul 28 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-1
- Jul 21 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-0
Olympique Lyonnais
WinLossLossLossWin
- Aug 11 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)3-0
- Aug 4 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Lens (H)0-4
- May 10 · at Toulouse (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Rennes (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Fenerbahçe | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.