Champions League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 10 · 16:45 · Fenerbahçe vs Roma
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 28%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fenerbahçe43%28%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Roma32%44%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 56% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 72% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 39% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fenerbahçe
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Samsunspor (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Konyaspor (H)4-2
- Aug 18 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
Roma
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Atalanta (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Lecce (A)4-0
- Aug 24 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- May 24 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
- May 17 · v Lazio (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fenerbahçe | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.