Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 16:45 · Fenerbahçe vs SK Slavia Praha
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fenerbahçe60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
SK Slavia Praha18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fenerbahçe
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Alanyaspor (H)3-0
- Oct 14 · at Aston Villa (A)0-6
- Oct 10 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Eyüpspor (H)8-0
- Sep 14 · at Gaziantep FK (A)0-0
SK Slavia Praha
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)0-0
- Oct 13 · at Sabah FK (A)0-2
- Oct 9 · at FC Zlín (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FK Varnsdorf (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | Fenerbahçe | SK Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.