NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 · Ferencváros TC vs Debreceni VSC
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 75%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferencváros TC75%72%+3
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
Debreceni VSC10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferencváros TC
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Celtic (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Debreceni EAC (A)7-0
- Sep 6 · v Újpest (H)2-2
- Sep 3 · at ETO FC Győr (A)3-0
Debreceni VSC
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Vasas (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Gödöllői SK (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Paksi FC (A)4-2
- Aug 28 · v MTK Budapest (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Kisvárda FC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ferencváros TC | Debreceni VSC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.