Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Jul 30 · 18:30 · Ferencváros TC vs FC Twente
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 34%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferencváros TC47%34%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
FC Twente28%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 56% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 66% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 45% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferencváros TC
WinWinWinLoss
- Jul 26 · at Paksi FC (A)2-4
- Jul 23 · at FC Twente (A)2-1
- Jul 16 · v FK Vojvodina (H)3-0
- Jul 9 · at FK Vojvodina (A)2-1
FC Twente
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Jul 23 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-2
- May 17 · at PSV (A)1-5
- May 10 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
- May 3 · at AZ (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ferencváros TC | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 80% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.